Tesla is entering a decisive phase in its pursuit of fully autonomous vehicles, signaling two major developments that could reshape its FSD (Full Self-Driving) strategy and the broader autonomous mobility landscape.
At the center of this push are two coordinated moves announced by CEO Elon Musk during recent public comments and industry events: the near-term rollout of a much larger and more capable FSD neural network model in early 2026 and the imminent removal of safety monitors from Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas — a critical milestone toward unsupervised autonomy.
1. A New, Larger FSD Model: “The Last Big Piece of the Puzzle”
Tesla is poised to deploy a significantly expanded version of its Full Self-Driving model in January or February 2026. CEO Elon Musk described this forthcoming iteration as “an order of magnitude larger” than the current version, incorporating enhanced reasoning and reinforcement learning capabilities. According to internal comments, this upgrade could represent what Musk calls the “last big piece of the puzzle” for autonomous operation.
Key aspects of the new FSD model include:
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Expanded neural network capacity: More parameters and deeper learning potentially improve decision-making and environment understanding.
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Better real-world driving autonomy: Reinforcement learning aims to refine performance in complex scenarios — long considered the most challenging aspect of autonomy.
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Bridge to true unsupervised driving: Musk signaled that this larger model, combined with ongoing validation, may finally unlock reliable operation without human oversight — a cornerstone of Level 4/5 autonomy.
Industry watchers have long speculated that scaling FSD’s neural network would be a pivotal step in reducing edge-case failures. Tesla’s approach relies heavily on camera-based perception and fleet learning, contrasting with competitors that pair cameras with lidar or radar sensors.
2. Robotaxi Safety Monitors to Be Removed “in Three Weeks”
In tandem with the software upgrade path, Tesla is preparing to remove human safety monitors from its Robotaxi fleet in Austin, a symbolic and operational leap toward fully autonomous commercial rides. Musk reiterated that unsupervised Robotaxis are “pretty much solved” and that the transition will take place in about three weeks from early December 2025.
This move — if realized — would mark one of the earliest instances in which a major OEM operates commercial autonomous vehicles without a human attendant on board. The initial Robotaxi service, which launched in June 2025, has been operating in a geofenced area of Austin with safety monitors in the passenger seat.
Tesla’s approach contrasts with peers like Waymo and Cruise, which have pursued extensive simulation miles, sensor redundancy (including lidar), and conservative safety frameworks before removing human oversight.
3. Strategic Implications and Challenges Ahead
Tesla’s dual strategy — expanding FSD model capacity while transitioning Robotaxis to no-monitor operation — reflects both bold ambition and rising stakes in autonomous driving:
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Competitive positioning: Moving rapidly toward unsupervised autonomy could give Tesla a practical lead in commercial driverless services, influencing market expectations and regulatory focus.
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Safety scrutiny: Regulators and safety analysts may intensify scrutiny of Tesla’s claims, especially as real-world performance data emerges from Robotaxi operations. The company has previously faced regulatory attention over early Robotaxi behavior.
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Validation and risk: Tesla emphasizes a validation phase — essentially stress-testing its systems before wider deployment. How extensively this translates into verifiable safety margins will be critical for public and regulatory confidence.
Overall, this moment represents a pivotal juncture in Tesla’s transition from advanced driver assistance toward autonomous mobility. Whether these technological and operational milestones will fulfill Musk’s vision — or sway broader regulatory and consumer trust — remains a story unfolding in real time.
